Markets · Commodities
Energy, metals, and agriculture
Benchmark futures on one board, grouped the way a commodities desk actually thinks about them — with the contract units, the spreads that matter, and the curve mechanics that decide what a long position really earns.
Three complexes, three sets of drivers
Grouping matters here more than in equities. Crude and corn share a settlement mechanism and almost nothing else — the thing that moves them, the seasonality and the storage economics are all different. Each tab holds the front-month contract for that complex.
A tick is not a tick
Every quote above is priced in its own unit against its own lot size, so the same one-percent move means a very different amount of money in each row. These are the exchange specifications — check them before you size anything.
Energy
2 benchmark contracts
Priced off inventories, spare production capacity and freight. The crude complex leads; natural gas trades its own weather-driven cycle and is the most volatile thing on the board.
| Contract | Size | Min tick |
|---|---|---|
| CLWTI Crude Oil · $ / barrel | 1,000 barrels | $0.01 = $10 |
| NGNatural Gas · $ / MMBtu | 10,000 MMBtu | $0.001 = $10 |
Metals
3 benchmark contracts
Precious metals trade real yields and the dollar. Industrial metals trade construction, grid build-out and Chinese demand — copper reacts first and is the one macro desks watch.
| Contract | Size | Min tick |
|---|---|---|
| GCGold · $ / troy oz | 100 troy oz | $0.10 = $10 |
| SISilver · $ / troy oz | 5,000 troy oz | $0.005 = $25 |
| HGCopper · $ / lb | 25,000 lb | $0.0005 = $12.50 |
Agriculture
3 benchmark contracts
Weather, acreage and export policy set the tone, and the calendar matters: a July drought scare and a January one are not the same trade. Grains quote in cents per bushel, which trips up newcomers.
| Contract | Size | Min tick |
|---|---|---|
| ZCCorn · ¢ / bushel | 5,000 bushels | ¼¢ = $12.50 |
| ZWWheat · ¢ / bushel | 5,000 bushels | ¼¢ = $12.50 |
| ZSSoybeans · ¢ / bushel | 5,000 bushels | ¼¢ = $12.50 |
Specifications are the standard full-size contracts; micro and mini versions of most of these trade at a fraction of the notional. Always confirm the current spec with the exchange before trading.
Gold, the front-month contract
The metal that trades real yields rather than growth. Switch the interval, add indicators, or change the symbol to crude, copper or a grain — the whole board is one keystroke away.
Front-month futures roll into the next delivery month at expiry, so a long history stitched from consecutive front months contains a step at every roll. Nothing here is a forecast.
Contango, backwardation and what a long really earns
Futures expire. Holding a position for longer than one contract means selling the expiring month and buying a later one, and the shape of the curve decides whether that trade is a cost or a credit.
Contango — the curve slopes up
Each deferred month costs more than the one before it. That premium is the cost of carry: storage, insurance and the financing of holding the physical commodity until delivery. It is the normal state for anything cheap to produce and expensive to store.
A long roll sells the cheap expiring contract and buys a dearer deferred one, so it gives up value at every roll. That is negative roll yield, and in a steep curve it can outrun the spot move entirely — which is why a front-month index fund can lose money over a year in which spot barely changed.
Backwardation — the curve slopes down
Deferred months trade below the front. This is the market bidding for the physical commodity now — tight inventories, a supply disruption, a refinery outage. The premium paid for immediate availability is the convenience yield, and when it exceeds the cost of carry the curve inverts.
Now the roll works for you: you sell the richer expiring contract and buy a cheaper deferred one, banking positive roll yield even if spot never moves. Deep backwardation is also a stress signal — it usually means someone needs barrels or bushels this month, not next.
Both sketches are schematic shapes drawn to illustrate the two curve states.
Where the return actually comes from
The total return on a collateralised futures position decomposes into three pieces, and only the first is the one most people think they are trading:
- Spot return
- The change in the price of the commodity itself over the holding period.
- Roll yield
- What each roll adds or costs — positive in backwardation, negative in contango, roughly the slope of the curve times how often you roll.
- Collateral return
- Interest earned on the cash backing the margin. Immaterial at zero rates, meaningful when short rates are high.
Backtests that ignore the roll are not testing a tradeable strategy. AlgoBeam rolls continuous series on a declared schedule and back-adjusts the history, so a simulated commodity result carries the same drag or credit the live position would have.
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